Beyond Measure: The hidden history of measurement by James Vincent

A history of measurement might not sound like an interesting premise for a book. It’s actually … kind of amazing. That’s in large part because the author, James Vincent, has done an excellent job with the book. In Beyond Measure, Vincent goes to the deeper questions, the reasons why measurement matters. He uses the conceptual framework to touch on how we understand the world, how people and governments exert systems of control on others around them, and how changing measurement systems can reflect internal or international conflict between countries. I loved it, and I’d say it’s well worth a read.

Quotes

Introduction: Why measurement matters

Page 8

The roots of measurement are entangled with those of civilisation, traceable back to the ancient Egyptians and Babylonians. It was these societies that first learned to apply consistent units in construction, trade, and astronomy, building towering monuments to gods and kings, and mapping the stars with their newfound power.

Page 9

Regardless of whether we think about it or not, measurement is suffused throughout the world; an ordering principle that affects not only what we see and touch, but also the often intangible guidelines of society, from clocks and calendars to the rewards and punishments of work.

Page 12

It’s not enough to simply compare one tower to another or use a measuring tool the same height as the target. We must instead create an intermediary: a unit of measure that represents nothing but its own value and provides a convenient medium for transferring information from one domain to another.

Page 14

metrological triumphalism: a confidence in the power of number to square the untidy mysteries of the universe and tame the unknown through calculation. It is a reasonable belief given the history of the sciences, where accurate measure has time and time again proved itself a prerequisite for experiment and a spur to discovery.

Page 17

Indeed, if you were to summarise the history of measurement in a single sentence, it would be as a history of increasing abstraction. Measurement begins life rooted in the particulars of human experience but over time has become increasingly detached from our life and labour. Just as with Kepler’s laws, the result is that it has attained authority over an ever- expanding domain.

Page 20

Corruption, too, flourished with variable measures. Manorial lords, for example, would collect their feudal dues using capacity measures of grain larger than those used in markets and mills. When their dependents were cheated, what authority could they turn to? An absence of standardised measures created a power vacuum that was easy to exploit.

Page 24

Measurement is unquestionably a tool of control and, as a result, has been used throughout history to manipulate, persecute, and oppress. To measure something, after all, is to impose limits on the world: to say this far but no further.

Page 24

Measurement is a tool that reinforces what we find important in life, what we think is worth paying attention to. The question, then, of who gets to make those choices is of the utmost importance.

1: The kindling of civilisation: The ancient world, the first units of measurement, and their cognitive rewards

Page 32

‘Even then people were reliant on the Nile, and one of the reasons we think the whole ancient Egyptian state came about, with the creation of writing and bureaucracy and so on, was to organise access to the water and land,’ she says. ‘You have to figure out a way of documenting who owns the water and who gets access to it, and that requires the state.’

Page 41

a product of the state’s bureaucratic culture known as the Onomasticon of Amenopĕ. In its simplest form, the onomasticon is simply a list of some 610 entries: items that collectively span the known world.

Page 46

For the ancient Greeks, these stars were the seven daughters of the Titan Atlas running from the hunter Orion while their father was occupied holding up the heavens. But they were also a signal to labourers: when the stars disappeared, it meant that the sailing season had ended and they must return to their fields. As the eighth- century bc poet Hesiod writes in his didactic poem Works and Days: ‘When the Pleiades, the Hyades, and mighty Orion set, / remember the time has come to plow again– / and may the earth nurse for you a full year’s supply.’

Page 51

The science writer Robert P. Crease suggests that there are three crucial properties that units of measurement must possess: accessibility, proportionality, and consistency.

Page 52

Poppy, millet, and wheat seeds have all been used to create measures of length and weight, some of which are still in use today. The barleycorn, for example, has a long history in Great Britain as a unit of length. It’s equal to a third of an inch, or around 0.8 centimetres, and has been associated with length at least since the early fourteenth century, when King Edward II declared that ‘three grains of barley, dry and round make an inch’. This definition later became standardised in the imperial system of measurement, and is still in use today as an increment in UK and US shoe sizes. The difference between sizes is equivalent to a third of an inch, which shoemakers call a barleycorn.

Page 53

we still measure precious gems like diamonds and emeralds with the carat, 37 a unit derived from the seed of the Middle Eastern carob tree (and that is now standardised as 200 milligrams).

Page 55

it was Ethiopian folk wisdom to ask a friend with ‘long arms’ to go to the market on your behalf, the better to extract favourable measures.

Page 56

Each year, during the inundation of the Nile, the floodwaters would destroy the boundaries of the river’s surrounding farmland, and it was the job of a specialist corps of surveyors, known as harpedonaptae, or ‘rope- stretchers’, to restore order to the land. Using knotted ropes pulled tight to avoid sagging, they would venture into the mud and redraw the boundaries of the fields, ensuring that the waters unleashed by the river could be put to productive use. Their work was one of coordination and communication: minimising disputes between farmers and ensuring that the productive land was not wasted.

2: Measure and the social order: The importance of metrology for early states and the fabric of society

Page 68

It’s often assumed that the state is needed to create this shared space, but historical evidence of the development of measurement suggests otherwise. Take, for example, the ancient use of mass standards: stones carved into regular shapes like spools, cubes, and ovals that were placed in balance pans to weigh goods. These can be found buried deep in the archaeological record, appearing from around 3000 bc onwards. This is centuries before the first descriptions of ‘royal’ standards appear, suggesting rulers co- opted as much as they created consistent standards of measure. Despite the lack of any central regulation, these ancient mass standards are incredibly consistent in their values. One analysis of more than 2,000 standards used across Mesopotamia, the Aegean, Anatolia, and Europe found that the weight of these stones differed very little between 3000 and 1000 bc. The total variation among the standards, which were recovered from locations thousands of kilometres distant, is between just 9 and 13 per cent. The conclusion is that Bronze Age merchants were capable of regulating units of measurement without the need for an overarching authority, with each individual meeting between traders serving as an opportunity to compare and adjust their weights.

Page 69

the regulation of units of measure has been embraced by various political systems over the millennia. And from the ancient world through to the early modern nation state, enforcing these reliable units has been both a privilege and a duty, as necessary in justifying a leader’s rule as the punishment of criminals or maintenance of roads.

Page 71

The link between measurement and music can be traced back to stories of the mythical Yellow Emperor, Huangdi, who was said to have created the first musical pitch pipes when he commanded his music master to cut bamboo stalks to specific lengths, matching the cries of male and female phoenixes. 10 These pitch pipes, known as lülü, defined the harmonic parameters of traditional Chinese music, and were used to tune the instruments of the imperial court. As a result, their exact value was not simply a matter of aesthetic importance but held ‘cosmic significance’, connecting the rule of the emperors to a semi- divine past. 11 Because the pitches of the lülü were determined by their length, the value of the units used to measure the pipes could become a battleground for political factions. This dynamic is seen most clearly in the life of Xun Xu, a senior court official in the third century ad. Xun Xu was tasked with reorganising the imperial state led by the newly inaugurated Jin dynasty, 12 which controlled the south- eastern portion of present- day China. He sought to legitimise the rule of his new master, Emperor Wu, through the oblique politics of the imperial court, and by enacting a number of reforms to strengthen the emperor’s authority. These included changing the basic unit of linear measure, the chi. To define the new unit, Xun Xu raided tombs from the ancient Zhou dynasty, a long- lasting lineage that introduced many of China’s enduring political and cultural traditions. He dug up old Zhou jade rulers and used these as a template for his new Jin measure, which in turn altered the pitch of the lülü. He argued that by doing so, Emperor Wu was restoring the wisdom of this earlier, hallowed age, and that Wu’s predecessors had been literally out of tune with the harmony of the ancients. The Jin reforms– both metrological and musicological– would restore this glorious past. For Xun Xu, though, this meddling with measures did not have a happy end, and when he debuted his newly tuned instruments at court, the reception was not wholly harmonious. When the band started playing, the respected scholar and musician Ruan Xian, who was part of a group aligned with the pre- Jin regime, complained that the resulting harmonies were too high in pitch. ‘A high pitch connotes grief,’ Ruan is said to have commented. ‘These are not the pitches of a flourishing state, but the pitches of a dying one. The music of a dying state is sad and full of longing, and its people are full of misery.’ 13 His musical augury proved reliable. Not many years later, Emperor Wu died and the Jin state was plunged into disorder as eight rival princes struggled for power. Finding harmony among so many competing standards would be too much even for Xun Xu’s cleverness.

Page 75

In general, these variable units stayed in use at least into the nineteenth century, and their appeal is easy to understand. They’re rich in information that modern measures just don’t capture, shrinking and expanding to suit the particularities of their environment, like the quality of the soil or evenness of the terrain. Understanding how much land could be ploughed in a day or how much seed was needed to sow the next harvest was essential knowledge in an agricultural economy, and the rise and fall of these measures follows the contours of economic and industrial development.

Page 78

Each moment of metrological imprecision offers the powerful and unscrupulous an opportunity for profit.

Page 78

The most common infraction seems to be nobles and merchants insisting on using their own set of capacity measures when taking payment, which presumably offered unfavourable portions compared to those used among the peasants. One of the most well- documented records of this sort of manipulation can be found in the Cahiers de doléances, an eighteenth- century survey of complaints and grievances collected in the run- up to the French Revolution.

Page 79

with sunset and sunrise changing throughout the year, this meant the hour had to move with the seasons, expanding in summer and contracting in winter. These so- called temporal hours were inherited by Europeans in the Middle Ages and meant that the length of the hour in London, for example, could vary from 38 to 82 minutes.

Page 79

This fact was not so much unnoticed in this period as much as it was an observation that would simply have made no sense. Thinking of the hour as a consistent measure was not a familiar concept for most people, while the minute and second didn’t exist as common units. (The division of the hour into 60 minutes and the minute into 60 seconds comes from the Babylonians, who used a base- 60, or sexagecimal, system of counting for their astronomy. The ancient Greeks later adopted this and divided circular astronomical maps into 360 divisions, which were later transposed on to clock faces.)

Page 81

This unusual coexistence of temporal hours and mechanical horology is memorialised by some of the most beautiful clocks in existence: circular timepieces with hour markers positioned on rails that move about their perimeter like tiny train carriages, sliding back and forth to adjust the length of each hour so that it matches the changes of the seasons.

Page 83

Psychostasia is thought to have made its way into Christianity via the Coptic sects of north- eastern Africa, who themselves likely inherited it from the Egyptians. The weighing of souls is never directly mentioned in the Bible, but Christian iconography has embraced the scales of judgement, usually assigning them to the archangel Michael, leader of God’s armies.

Page 90

In Italy, from the twelfth century onwards such public standards seem to have become popular again as the area grew in wealth. Lugli dubs these monuments pietre di paragone, or ‘touchstones’, as they were often carved into stone on the sides of important buildings and public infrastructure. This gives them a status similar to other important rights and duties in medieval communes, which were often recorded in the same way. The facade of the cathedral in Lucca, for example, tells traders to ‘commit no theft nor trick nor falsification within the courtyard’, 53 while the commune of Perugia announced a new form of taxation in 1234 by carving it into a slab of stone and affixing this to their cathedral’s belfry.

Page 90

The pietre di paragone got the same treatment, with units of length carved as stone incisions into the walls of churches and markets.

Page 91

Verifying the value of a standard this way is referred to by modern metrologists as ‘traceability’, and it underscores the notion that if units of measure are to be trusted, then there needs to be a way to trace them back to their source and ensure they have not been altered. While length standards were the most common example of pietre di paragone, other units also appeared carved in stone. A set of standards on Padua’s Palazzo della Ragione from 1277 include a standard- sized brick, roof tile, and loaf of bread.

3: The proper subject of measurement: How the scientific revolution expanded measure’s domain

Page 107

When Plato says that the ideal population for a state is 5,040 citizens, for example, he doesn’t justify this choice by calculations involving, say, food supplies or division of labour. Having 5,040 citizens is right and proper for a city because 5,040 is the product of 7 × 6 × 5 × 4 × 3 × 2 × 1 and therefore a mystically significant figure.

Page 109

They approached scholarship like indiscriminate magpies, compiling anything that caught their eye in disparate sources, and happy to treat rumour as reliable fact.

Page 118

A similar transformation took place in the world of medieval music, powered by another quantifying tool: musical notation. For most of the medieval era, music could only be passed on from singer to singer, with our favourite encyclopedist Isidore lamenting in the seventh century that ‘unless sounds are held by the memory of man, they perish, because they cannot be written down’.

Page 119

Pope John XXII, actually banned ars nova in the first papal bull to deal only with music, the 1324 Docta sanctorum patrum. Seven centuries later, the decree’s complaint is quite cogent. It says that an obsession with melodic and rhythmic innovation has obscured the devotional content of plainsong: ‘The voices move incessantly to and fro, intoxicating rather than soothing the ear, while the singers themselves try to convey the emotion of the music by their gestures.’ The bull even refers specifically to the tools of musical measurement as responsible for this unwanted change, explaining that ‘the measured dividing of the tempora [periods, the basic unit of duration in music]’ has allowed notes of ‘small value’ to proliferate, which choke and starve the ‘modest rise and temperate descents of plainsong’ like weeds in a well- ordered garden. 43 The skills of measurement, quantification, and division were proving too fertile.

Page 120

Perhaps most importantly, the mechanical clock propelled a new conception of time into the public consciousness, transforming it from a constant flow, embodied in steady emissions of water, sand, and mercury, to a quantified count; something divisible, discrete, and measurable.

Page 123

As with the monastery bells, public clocks organised citizens into a cohesive unit, turning what had previously been private lives into communal tides that rose, worked, and retired as one. The fluctuations of the sun might determine the labour of agricultural peasants, but the new class of urban workers had previously lacked such central oversight and authority. This vacuum was filled.

Page 123

The mechanical philosophers reasoned that if clockwork was able to capture the movement of the stars and bring elaborate automata to life, who was to say that the natural world didn’t operate under similar logic? Might not the universe itself be only a sort of monstrously complex clock, a machina mundi, or ‘world machine’, that animated matter through the operation of as yet undiscovered gears and levers? If this was the case, then Aristotle’s teleological explanations, in which rocks fell to Earth and smoke rose to the heavens because it was in their nature to do so, were crude and unsatisfying. If nature worked like a machine, then it must rely on observable cause and effect, not some inscrutable soul- like purpose. You didn’t need to grapple with the world of the forms to unravel its workings; you needed experimentation and observation.

Page 126

From 1609, Galileo’s work moved to a new plane itself. Using home- made telescopes he’d constructed solely by reading descriptions of the device, he began to examine the night sky. There he found many unexpected sights, including the moons of Jupiter, the first objects seen orbiting other planets, and the surface of the moon (which, despite the claims of ancient authority, was not perfectly smooth but ‘everywhere full of enormous swellings, deep chasms and sinuosities’ 54). Turning to the sun, he noted patterns of darkness moving from west to east across its face. Were these clouds? Other planets? Whatever they were, they showed the heavens weren’t immutable, as Aristotle had claimed. The world above changed day by day, just like the world below. The mistake had been trusting tradition and authority instead of the testimony of the senses. As Galileo wrote, following his discovery of what we now know to be sunspots: ‘So long as men were in fact obliged to call the Sun most pure and most lucid, no shadows or impurities whatever had been perceived in it; but now it shows itself to us as partly impure and spotty, why should we not call it spotted and not pure? For names and attributes must be accommodated to the essence of things, and not the essence to the names, since things come first and names afterwards.’

Page 129

This is a core dynamic in the history of measurement, in which greater abstraction allows our tools to encompass larger territories. Abstraction loosens ties to the local and particular, allowing freedom of movement. But it comes with a price. As we saw at the beginning of the chapter with Donne’s concern that this ‘new philosophy puts all in doubt’, there is a psychological cost associated with the breaks of the scientific revolution, one that is powered by abstraction and measurement. The sureties of faith and the consolations of the ancients were weakened. New knowledge about humanity’s literal and metaphysical place in the universe had to be assimilated.

Page 130

He was a rigorous and inventive experimentalist; someone who stared at the sun and poked blunt needles into his eye to investigate the nature of light. But he was also an ardent alchemist and numerologist who extended the logic of his theories far beyond what his experimental proofs could support (or so his critics maintained). And while his laws of gravitation and motion mechanised the universe, turning the music of the spheres into a cosmic game of billiards, he also stressed the importance of unseen forces in nature. He considered phenomena like magnetism and electricity beyond the scope of his philosophy, and placed immaterial principles at the heart of the Principia in the form of the gravitational constant, G, which somehow held the universe together. What exactly this force was Newton could neither quantify nor explain, but he knew it was necessary for his calculations to work.

Page 130

As the English economist and Newton scholar John Maynard Keynes put it: ‘Newton was not the first of the age of reason. He was the last of the magicians.’

4: The quantifying spirit: The disenchantment of the world and the history of hot and cold

Page 137

It was here, on cold and crisp autumn mornings like today, that the bodies of executed criminals would be cut open for the benefit of young medical students. In return for their posthumous contributions to science, the dead earned themselves the redemption of a Christian burial, while students, watching from vertiginous tiers of wooden benches, learned how to save the living.

Page 139

In his utopian fable New Atlantis, Bacon sketched out a blueprint for his ideal state: an island empire ruled by pious monarchs, whose power is sustained by what Bacon calls ‘Solomon’s House’, a state- run scientific organisation that is equal parts secret society and research university. The institute’s credo encapsulates the grand ambitions of these early empiricists: ‘The end of our Foundation is the knowledge of Causes, and secret motions of things, and the enlarging of the bounds of Human Empire, to the effecting of all things possible.’

Page 141

The creation of reliable thermometers, he says, perfectly demonstrates the difficulty of establishing scientific truths in unknown territory. In the case of temperature, the problems are simple to articulate but maddeningly difficult to answer. How do you test the reliability of a thermometer without already possessing a reliable thermometer as a benchmark?

Page 143

For the ancient Greek philosopher Heraclitus, fire was not merely a material phenomenon but the first principle of the universe. It was the source of all life and a constant roiling change that burned through the world, transforming matter. The order of things ‘no god nor man did create’, taught Heraclitus, only ‘ever- living fire’, which shapes life in the womb and burns dead wood to make space for new growth. ‘All things are an exchange for fire, and fire for all things, as goods for gold and gold for goods,’ he said.

Page 144

We don’t need to see a body on a dissecting table to know that heat is life and cold is death.

Page 147

These experiments show how quantification can transform a concept like temperature. With the help of these early thermoscopes, hot and cold are no longer qualities that inhere within objects, hidden and inscrutable, but information that can be extracted from its source. Transformed into abstract data, this information can be collected, shared, compared. And the new testimony of these instruments is so powerful that it can overrule even our senses.

Page 147

And writing at around the same time in 1620, Francis Bacon comments that the thermoscope’s sense of ‘heat and cold is so delicate and exquisite, that it far exceeds the human touch’. 16 The scientific instrument had begun to displace human experience as the arbiter of reality.

Page 148

Although the exact mechanisms of heat and cold were not fully understood in the early modern period, scientists knew that changing temperature had an effect on a range of phenomena, from subtle processes like the speed of chemical reactions to more obvious events like melting, evaporation, and condensation. This meant that being able to record and subsequently adjust temperature was essential for experimentation in a range of disciplines.

Page 149

In the same way that the consistency of millet seeds provided a baseline for creating ancient measures of weight and length, allowing anyone to recreate the same unit as long as they could find enough seeds, scientists needed fixed points to anchor their scales.

Page 151

One contributor who stands out is Daniel Gabriel Fahrenheit, an instrument- maker whose work brought him fame in the early eighteenth century, but whose early life was marked by tragedy.

Page 152

After four years in Amsterdam, he absconded from his apprenticeship and became a scientific fugitive, stealing money from his employers to fund his own research, while hopping around European cities to learn from the great scientists of the age. His guardians responded as any caring adults would: they had a warrant issued for his arrest and gave the authorities permission to deport him to the East Indies if captured.

Page 155

Although measurement is stereotyped as a stultifying activity that reduces the vibrancy of the world to mere numbers, work like de Luc’s shows the opposite can be just as true. The desire to measure something with accuracy forces people to seek new corners of the phenomenological world; to find nooks and crannies of physical experience that were previously lost in the melee. The closer we look, the more the world reveals itself.

Page 155

There was just too much variety in the temperatures at which boiling occurred. Instead, scientists turned to measuring the steam produced by the water, which proved to be a much more stable reference point. Whether the water below was sifflement or soubresaut, the steam above was consistent. This may seem like a failure, as if the scientists working on the problem had wasted time with a series of wrong answers before stumbling upon the ‘right’ solution. But it demonstrates an important concept within metrology and science, what Chang calls ‘epistemic iteration’. This is the process by which ‘successive stages of knowledge, each building on the preceding one, are created in order to enhance the achievement of certain epistemic goals’.

Page 159

Thomson was inspired in his work by a text named Réflexions sur la puissance motrice du feu (‘ Reflections on the Motive Power of Fire’), which was published many decades earlier in 1824 by French scientist and military engineer Nicolas Léonard Sadi Carnot. It was the only book Carnot ever published, and was ignored almost completely by his peers, but it contained enough original thinking for a lifetime’s work. ‘It was utterly without precedent and dense with implications,’ as one historian puts it. 35

Page 163

This claim, that measurement diminishes its subject, is one that appears frequently in discussions of metrology. It is part of a broader charge laid against the sciences and captured best in Max Weber’s concept of disenchantment: the displacement of the supernatural by the scientific and an accompanying loss of meaning. Think, for example, of how caloric– a substance of almost folkloric properties: weightless, frictionless, and invisible– is supplanted by the brute mechanics of the steam engine and the dynamic theory of heat. In this framework of knowledge, the mysteries of the universe are eliminated as chemistry replaces alchemy and enchantment is subdued by engineering. Or so the story goes.

Page 163

I don’t agree that our changing understanding of temperature has led to an impoverishment of meaning. Instead, just as the heat of the furnace turns coal into steam and the motion of turbines, the scientific refinements of thermometry have transformed the richness of their subject, revitalising old mythologies and offering new ways to understand the world. Consider, for example, how the instrumentation of thermometry has furnished our language with new explanatory ideas. In the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries, the thermometer and its cousin the barometer were eagerly adopted as metaphors, appearing in books, newspaper articles, and political speeches. The visual language of falling and rising liquid was intuitively understood, while the uncanny sensitivity of these devices to invisible phenomena suggested they might have other, mysterious powers of quantification.

5: The metric revolution: The radical politics of the metric system and its origin in the French Revolution

Page 183

the system should be decimal, with all units divisible by 10. This was, and is still today, a controversial demand, with opponents arguing that base- 12 and base- 16 systems (like those used by British imperial and US customary measures) are easier for calculation. They allowed users to divide units into halves, thirds, and quarters without resorting to decimal places, simplifying daily transactions.

Page 186

The expedition itself took seven years, during which Delambre and Méchain struggled not only with the demands of precision, but also with the fevered climate of the French Revolution. Their method of survey was triangulation, which uses geometry to calculate distance. Their approach was based on the Euclidean principle that if you know the three angles of a triangle and the length of one side, you can calculate the length of the other two.

Page 187

this unfamiliar activity meant they were often challenged by locals, who took them for spies, or worse, counter- revolutionaries.

6: A grid laid across the world: The surveying of land, the colonisation of the US, and the power of abstraction

Page 215

Land surveys can seem like mere bureaucratic conveniences, but they play an important role in the development of the modern state. In his influential 1998 book Seeing Like a State, the political scientist James C. Scott argues that over the last few centuries, states have deployed various ‘tools of legibility’ to better understand and control the activities of their citizens. These tools are varied in both form and application, but share certain traits: they standardise and simplify the world, reshaping the organic development of society into forms that are more easily aggregated by administrative centres. Censuses are used to discover the size and composition of a populace, for example, and land surveys and property records document where they live and what they own. These methods of standardisation can touch on the most personal matters, reaching into the habits and customs of everyday life to adjust them for the benefit of unseen bureaucrats. Minority and regional languages are discriminated against or suppressed in favour of official languages, ensuring their speakers’ assimilation into the dominant culture. And weights and measures of individual regions are replaced with standardised units that allow commerce to be similarly harmonised and surveilled.

Page 216

Take, for example, the introduction of surnames in Europe towards the end of the Middle Ages. Until at least the fourteenth century, writes Scott, the majority of Europeans did not have permanent patronymics, with individuals often adopting new names when starting a new job or moving to a new area. 3 This caused problems for the state when trying to track the activities of individuals, as illustrated by a court case from sixteenth- century England. Here, a Welshman is summoned to appear in court, but when asked for his name replies that he is ‘Thomas Ap [son of] William, Ap Thomas, Ap Richard, Ap Hoel, Ap Evan Vaughan’. It’s a perfectly normal name for the period, a genealogical title that is both intimate and informative, identifying not only the individual, but his ancestry. The information it contains makes sense to members of Thomas’s community, who likely knew his father and grandfather before him. But to outsiders it is cryptic. The judge is unhappy and scolds Thomas, telling him to ‘leave the old manner’ and adopt a single surname that suits the administrative needs of the state. Whereupon Thomas Ap William Ap Thomas (etc.) ‘called himself Moston, according to the name of his principal house, and left that name to his posteritie’. 4

Page 217

The courtroom christening of Thomas Moston underscores the driving purpose of tools of legibility: to iron out the particularities of local knowledge and repackage it into universal forms. Once you’re aware of this dynamic, you will find it everywhere in your life, when the bureaucracies of state and business slot you into categories built for their convenience.

Page 220

It’s interesting to contrast this method with older traditions of survey and ownership in the British Isles, such as the annual ritual of ‘beating the bounds’. During the beating of the bounds, residents of a town or village would gather together to carry out a foot survey of their community. Priests and elders would lead the expeditions, pointing out geographical features like streams, rocks, and walls that marked the limits of their parish.

Page 224

This flexibility made Gunter’s chain the dominant tool for land surveying in the English- speaking world for some 300 years. And although it has long been superseded by modern measuring tools, Gunter’s chain is still embedded in the landscapes of former British colonies, including the US, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand. Roads in these territories are often one chain wide, while building lots and city blocks are commonly measured in multiples of chains. In the UK itself, the length of the chain is encoded in one of the country’s cultural cornerstones: the cricket pitch. It’s proof that if you look hard enough at the divisions of the world that seem arbitrary or haphazard, you will find long- forgotten choices, produced by necessity and preserved by tradition.

Page 227

Jefferson was critical in setting the manner of this expansion, and helped form a trio of laws passed in 1784, 1785, and 1787 and collectively known as the Northwest Ordinances. Along with the Declaration of Independence and US Constitution, these are among the most important documents in the founding of the United States– not because they contain impassioned cries for democracy, but because they describe, simply and plainly, how its land would be divided, sold, and governed. The Northwest Ordinances authorised a survey in the form of a huge grid, initially covering the great mass of territory that lay between the founding states and the Mississippi River. The main subdivision of the grid was the ‘township’– a 6- mile by 6- mile square (the decimally minded Jefferson had argued for 10 by 10) that contained thirty- six subdivisions of a square mile each.

Page 228

As the French political scientist Émile Boutmy commented in 1891, when the surveyors had crossed the whole of the continent and the true scope of this land rush could be better appreciated: ‘The striking and peculiar characteristic of American society is that it is not so much a democracy as a huge commercial company for the discovery, cultivation, and capitalization of its enormous territory. The United States are primarily a commercial society, and only secondarily a nation.’

Page 231

The surveyor’s chain may not have been as directly responsible for the death and misery of indigenous people as the Winchester repeating rifle and smallpox virus were, but it was still an essential tool of colonial violence.

Page 232

Often, agreements between Native Americans and colonists were broken by settlers squatting the land illegally. Such activity could be officially disavowed by the government while serving its purposes. It created a foothold for further settlement and provoked Indian violence that could be met with military force. Surveying in this context gave the appearance of agreement between different groups, only for colonisers to later trespass the same boundaries.

Page 234

Contrary to Jefferson’s propaganda, his grid supported not just a prosperous yeoman citizenry, but also an enslaved and immiserated society: men, women, and children in chains, who mixed their blood and sweat with the soil, as Locke had envisioned, without expectation of ever claiming ownership.

Page 236

The template for survey- led conquest can probably be traced back to the British and the seventeenth- century war in Ireland led by Oliver Cromwell. Determined to quell a growing coalition of Royalists and Catholics, Cromwell pursued a campaign of pillage and slaughter in the country, leaving more than a fifth of the population dead and confiscating land from Irish nobles and clergy. To facilitate this process, a survey of the island was commissioned by William Petty, an army physician and former professor of anatomy at the University of Oxford. Petty recruited hundreds of soldiers to act as surveyors, teaching them to measure the terrain using Gunter’s chain. The resulting Down Survey (reportedly so called because ‘a chain was laid down’ 47) covered nearly 8,400,000 acres48 of territory and is a milestone in cartography: the most detailed, accurate, and extensive cadastral survey of the early modern era, and the first conducted at a national scale. For those who commissioned it, the survey was a huge success, facilitating the transfer of land and control of the nation. After it was completed, Catholic land ownership in Ireland fell from around 60 per cent to 14 per cent, 49 resulting in ‘the most epic and monumental transformation of Irish life, property and landscape that the island has ever known’. 50 It was a forceable change in the country’s ruling elite that wouldn’t be reversed for centuries, and, again, it was the power of the survey and measurement that was instrumental.

7: Measuring life and death: The invention of statistics and the birth of average

Page 256

this is one of the fundamental traps of measurement: the more precise you are, the more inconsistent your results often appear to be.

Page 262

His work triggered a statistical feeding frenzy among the professional classes, with societies, journals, and institutions devoted to the discipline springing up across Europe. Members collected and published data of increasingly dubious relevance, with one resourceful acolyte siphoning off the contents of the toilets in a busy train station to attempt to deduce the ‘average European urine’.

Page 263

The consistency of these findings revealed to Quetelet that individual choice mattered far less than we had ever thought. You might believe you’re getting married out of love, but statistics show you are simply following a line on a graph. As Quetelet put it in a private letter to a friend: ‘It is society that prepares the crime; the guilty person is only the instrument who executes it.’ 29 In comparison to his earlier work, these new conclusions triggered feelings of anger and disbelief.

Page 268

He even tested the limits of his quantitative methods by applying them to matters of faith, publishing a study in 1872 titled ‘Statistical Inquiries into the Efficacy of Prayer’, in which he hoped to determine whether ‘those who pray attain their objects more frequently than those who do not pray’. The evidence, he concluded, suggested otherwise. The most conclusive proof he offered was that despite an abundance of weekly prayers in churches for the health of the UK’s monarchs, they remained ‘literally the shortest lived of all who have the advantage of affluence’.

Page 279

But we still struggle with the dual nature of the figures it creates; with their part- invented, part- discovered character. Statistics about education, income, and IQ are used to make sweeping judgements about whole nations and races, while many still venerate the normal curve as some arbiter of social destiny.

8: The Battle of the Standards: Metric vs imperial and metrology’s culture war

Page 293

As with the pietre di paragone carved into the marketplaces of Italian towns, or the meticulous rules about measuring grain in medieval Europe, arguments about the price of bananas aren’t abstract or academic– their significance is weighed in front of your eyes. And the grievance had remained, even though the European Union relented on the issue. In 2007, in fact, the EU had told the UK it could keep using imperial measures wherever it liked. As Günter Verheugen, EU industry commissioner, said at the time: ‘I want to bring to an end a bitter, bitter battle that has lasted for decades and which in my view is completely pointless.’

Page 298

This pervasive nature of measurements helps to explain why changes to units so often occur in times of social upheaval, such as conquest or revolution. It is only during these moments, when old sureties are tossed into the air like dice to fall who knows how, that reordering anything as fundamental as measurement can take place.

Page 305

Taylor found that if you divide twice the length of the structure’s base by its height, you get a figure that is exactly pi– an irrational number and mathematical constant not formally discovered until centuries after the pyramid’s construction. Taylor suggested that the pyramid had been built using a ‘sacred cubit’ as a base measure, tracing this theory back to Isaac Newton himself, who had claimed the same unit was used in the construction of Noah’s Ark, Solomon’s Temple, and the Holy of Holies, where the Ark of the Covenant was kept.

Page 309

It’s an approach that’s similar to the Onomasticon of Amenopĕ, putting the furthest reaches of the world into simple order, and shows the intoxicating potential of measurement: its ability to make chaos coherent and to encompass vast spans of the world.

Page 314

Mostly, he says, people don’t bat an eyelid when ARM members are working. The high- vis vests see to that. Earlier on, in a different pub, he’d shown me a video demonstrating his point. It’s called ‘Uniform Obedience’ and features an actor wearing a nondescript but official- looking outfit, standing in a city centre and asking members of the public to perform increasingly bizarre tasks. ‘Would you just walk to the left of that apple please, sir?’ he asks one passer- by, indicating a core on the pavement. ‘That’s right, to the left. Now, could you also stamp on that paving stone please? Thank you so much. Just to test the weight, you see.’ Everyone in the video does what the man says (or at least, everyone the directors decided to show), and for Tony this illustrates something fundamental about human nature, about our unthinking obedience to arbitrary rules. I don’t ask if he sees himself as an exception to this, but assume he does. Instead, I tell him that Banksy also dresses up as a council worker to get away with his own public amendments, and Tony is tickled by the comparison. ‘Does he really now? That’s fascinating, just fascinating,’ he laughs.

9: For all times, for all people: How metric units transcended physical reality and conquered the world

Page 330

This discrepancy was discovered during one of its semi- regular weigh- ins– an event that takes place every forty years or so, where national standards from around the world are flown into Paris to be compared with Le Grand K and its honour guard: a set of six témoin, or ‘witness’, kilograms that were cast at the same time as the IPK and are stored in the vault alongside it. These weigh- ins resemble the treatment of grain measures in medieval Europe, with every movement scrutinised and every variable controlled. The end effect turns protocol into ritual. The sacral objects are the standards themselves, which have to be scrupulously cleaned before being weighed. Each one is rubbed down by hand with a chamois leather soaked in a mixture of ether and ethanol and steam washed with twice- distilled water. Given the high stakes of the measurement, absolutely nothing is left to chance, with the BIPM’s official cleaning manual describing every step in meticulous detail, from the amount of pressure to be applied with the chamois (around 10 kilopascals) to the distance between kilogram and steam- cleaner (5 millimetres). Even the method of removing excess water using filter paper is carefully described: ‘For this operation, an edge of the paper is put in contact with each drop and the water allowed to flow into the paper by capillary action.’ 3 It is a secular sacrament, designed to appease the gods of metrology and maintain the reputation of international measurement, a system that supports so much in the modern world.

Page 336

Looking back on the century in 1931, the physicist Floyd K. Richtmyer noted that what the printing press had done for the medieval mind, measurement did for nineteenth- century science.

Page 338

The danger of this situation was demonstrated with dramatic emphasis in 1834, when the UK’s seat of parliament, the Old Palace of Westminster, burned down and took with it the country’s standard yard and pound. Ironically, the fire itself was caused by the disposal of another ancient tool of reckoning: tallies. These are short lengths of wood carved with notches to represent money owed. These staves are then split down their length into two pieces, foil and stock, which are given to the debtor and creditor respectively. The unique shape of the wood’s split ensures this record cannot be forged (and is also where the term ‘stockholder’ originates). The British government had been using tally sticks in its accounting since the medieval era, but had finally decided to get rid of these old records. Two cartloads of tallies were burned in furnaces in the palace’s basement, but the fire spread and engulfed the building, taking with it the country’s standards of measurement.

Page 345

To Peirce, fallibilism meant that there are no facts in life that are beyond doubt. Everything we believe exists with the possibility that it will be proven wrong, from the base evidence of our senses to the most elaborate, rigorously tested, and apparently flawless scientific theories. The doctrine of fallibilism is distinguished from the approach of sceptics, who claim we can never know anything for sure, with the addendum that it is quite all right to believe that we know things (indeed, it is essential to living), but we must, at the same time, leave open the possibility that we are completely, spectacularly wrong.

Page 350

The speed of light defines the universe at its largest spans. It is reality’s speed limit: you cannot travel faster than the speed of light, and so you cannot transmit information beyond its reach. In other words: it cannot be exceeded. Planck’s constant, on the other hand, helps define the lower boundaries of reality by describing the smallest action possible for elementary particles. It cannot be subceeded. If the speed of light rules supreme among galaxies, black holes, and the spaces between stars, then Planck’s constant has for its domain atoms, electrons, and the pocketable abyss of the subatomic world.

Page 356

In Versailles, the vote in the auditorium is approved, as everyone expected, and the official definition of the kilogram is changed the following year. As the metrologists hoped, nobody who missed the news noticed. Theirs is an invisible discipline, their work hidden from the public view, tucked away at the end of a string of decimal places. Yet on these precarious digits hangs the world of modern measurement, and with it, the frontier of human understanding.

10: The managed life: Measurement’s place in modern society and in our understanding of ourselves

Page 362

The peanut butter belongs to a library of over 1,200 standard reference materials, or SRMs, created by NIST to meet the demands of industry and government. It is a bible of contemporary metrology, each listing testament to the importance of unseen measurement in our lives. Whenever something needs to be verified, certified, or calibrated– whether that is the emissions levels of a new diesel engine or the optical properties of glass destined for high- powered lasers– the SRM catalogue offers the standards against which checks can be made.

Page 368

Prior to the introduction of shipping containers, goods had to be packed on to ships by hand, an arduous process that required days of work by crews of longshoremen, adding to costs and slowing the movement of cargo. But being able to pack everything into one- size- fits- all boxes that could be hoisted off ships and on to trucks in minutes significantly lowered the price of moving material around the world, leading to an explosion in shipping. Today, shipping containers are the building blocks of the global economy, the standards that make it economically feasible to manufacture goods in one country, package them in a second, and sell them in a third. For better or worse, it is shipping containers that made fast fashion and the iPhone possible; that created the conditions that allow the world’s largest- ever corporations to exist.

Page 372

‘The problem is not measurement,’ writes Muller, ‘but excessive measurement and inappropriate measurement– not metrics, but metric fixation.’ 9 The roots of this ideology can be traced back to changes in capitalism beginning in the nineteenth century. This was a period when management in the US particularly was emerging as a profession in its own right, rather than a proficiency learned by industry natives. Between 1870 and 1990, the number of salaried managers in America increased 500 per cent, from 12,501 to 67,706, creating an entirely new type of business structure, which historian Alfred Chandler has identified as ‘managerial capitalism’. In contrast to ‘personal capitalism’, in which those making decisions about a business have a direct stake in its operations, such responsibility is instead outsourced to ‘teams, or hierarchies, of salaried managers who had little or no equity ownership in the enterprises they operated’.

Page 374

This compartmentalisation of labour led to the scientific management movement pioneered by efficiency- obsessed engineer Frederick Winslow Taylor, who advocated a set of working practices now known as Taylorism. Taylor and his followers analysed working practices through ‘time and motion studies’, which involved observing labourers and breaking down the flow of their work into constituent parts that could then be standardised. Like the row of butchers that inspired Ford’s aide, it was another act of disassembly. The aim, said Taylor, was to ‘develop a science to replace the old rule- of- thumb knowledge of the workmen’. 12 Importantly, this also necessitated a transfer of knowledge and power, from the labourers who carried out the work to the managers who oversaw it.

Page 378

The most benign thing that can be said about the Vietnam body count is that it was fabricated, with soldiers flinging AK- 47s on to farmers killed in their crossfire and marking them down as dead Viet Cong in order to meet the quotas set by their superiors. It is more accurate to say that it encouraged war crimes. American troops massacred civilians, children, and babies in the knowledge that they were unlikely to face punishment; they turned unimaginable human suffering into statistics because they understood that this was the nature of their war.

Page 383

In the case of Google’s and Facebook’s shareholders, making the world a better place primarily means selling adverts. Despite both companies’ wild and ambitious side projects, from virtual reality headsets to self- driving cars, their wealth is founded upon something much less utopian and glamorous: targeted advertising, which makes up between 80 and 90 per cent of both firms’ annual revenue.

Page 388

Walk 10,000 steps a day, we’re told, and health and happiness will be your reward. It’s presented with such authority and ubiquity that you’d be forgiven for thinking it was the result of scientific enquiry, the distilled wisdom of numerous tests and trials. But no. Its origins are instead to be found in a marketing campaign by a Japanese company called Yamasa Clock. In 1965, the company was promoting a then novel gadget, a digital pedometer, and needed a snappy name for their new product. They settled on manpo- kei, or ‘10,000- steps meter’, the first instance of this metric being used to promote health. But why was this number chosen? Because the kanji for 10,000– and hence the first character in the product’s Japanese name,万歩計– looks like a figure striding forward with confidence. 35 There was no science to justify 10,000 steps, it seems, just a visual pun.

Page 390

‘More and more, for the average late modern subject in the “developed” western world, everyday life revolves around and amounts to nothing more than tackling an ever- growing to- do list.’ 43 This mindset, says Rosa, is the result of three centuries of cultural, economic, and scientific development, but these trends have become ‘newly radicalised’ in recent years thanks to digitalisation and the ferocity of unbridled capitalist competition. 44 The history of measurement tracks much of these developments, for not only is it a tool that has been embraced to better understand and control reality, but it now mediates much of our experience of the world, and, crucially, our experience of ourselves. As we measure more and more, we encounter the limits of this practice and wrestle with its disquieting effects on our lives. As noted by Rosa, these problems have been described in many forms by many thinkers over the centuries. For Karl Marx, it takes the form of alienation in our working lives, as we are separated from the products of our labour; for Max Weber, it is understood as the disenchantment of the world, in which the rationalisation of nature removes its magic and its meaning; and for Hannah Arendt, it is the distance created by science and technology that replaces the closeness of human intersubjectivity, of a world previously experienced communally alongside fellow human beings.

Page 393

Goodhart’s law– ‘Any observed statistical regularity will tend to collapse once pressure is placed upon it for control purposes’– then turned into ‘When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure’ in a paper published in 1997 by anthropologist Marilyn Strathern.

Epilogue: The measures in the head

Page 402

I think that many of us have this sort of relationship with measurement in our lives, particularly self- measurement. We erect scaffolds of to- do lists and deadlines that are equal parts obligation and aspiration, and construct within their frame the person we want to be. We’re encouraged to do so perpetually; tips and guidance on how to be more productive, to achieve more, permeate culture. They fill our magazine pages and social media feeds, promising that this or that new method will be the key to greater productivity and personal fulfilment. This isn’t a new phenomenon by any means, but it is ferocious in its current onslaught. Increasingly, our ability to manage our time productively is seen not just as an advantage but as a virtue– judgement on our moral worth. The ancient Egyptians may have been the first to suggest that you could weigh the value of a soul, but thousands of years later such reckoning is ubiquitous. History shows that the borders of measurement’s domain are not fixed. They’ve expanded as scientists have learned the rewards of observation and flexed to accommodate folklore and mysticism. And while it’s no longer common to attribute miracles to measurement, as with the mensura Christi and saints’ tales of the Middle Ages, there is still a residue of that same magical thinking in how we treat measures today. We have a tendency to venerate numbers for their supposed objectivity, to believe that all of life’s problems are soluble with statistics.

Linguistic prescriptivism

I’m not a linguistic, but I’m aware of the dichotomy that’s framed between prescriptivism and descriptivists. There are obvious critiques of prescriptivism, but I found it interesting to read this defense of (some forms of) prescriptivism:

I hate to say this, but variation does confuse communication. Ask a translator, or better yet, an air traffic controller.

Fortunately, natural language enjoys a very high level of redundancy and people have devised a truly remarkable array of strategies to compensate for misunderstandings, ambiguity and confusion. This redundancy enables us to use language simultaneously as a medium of communication, an artform, and as a way of affirming our individuality.

I have been meaning to write a post for a long time on the linguistics of air traffic control. Most international air traffic control takes place in English. Many people believe this is required by treaty or international law – it isn’t. Nearly everyone thinks that this means that all international pilots can speak English – they often can’t. Yes, pilots who have mastered less than 500 words of English and cannot order a coffee in the English language fly all over the world into airports where ATC and ground control takes place exclusively in English. Almost no one knows that the single worst accident in the history of aviation – 583 dead – was caused by a Dutch pilot using a common Dutch verbal structure in English, which a Spanish air traffic controller understood as having the opposite meaning to that intended.

Air traffic control is one place where an absolutely Nazi level of linguistic fascism is generally held to be entirely justified. It is an extreme case, but not that extreme. Product labels, instructions, maintenance manuals, medical documentation – in each of these areas we are willing to forgo brevity and individuality for the sake of absolute clarity. In such instances, a failure to use a common, socially agreed upon standard language can lead to waste, economic inefficiency, legal liability, injury and even death.

There are other areas where I think weaker forms of prescriptivism are helpful – language preservation, neologisms and borrowed words, and as an aid to translators in particular – but none of those need to involve very heavy enforcement efforts to work.

No, I do not advocate the kind of folk prescriptivism associated with nuns bearing rulers. Most so-called prescriptive rules are a great big steaming pile of dog’s bollocks. I’m only able to defend prescriptivism because the primitive prescriptivism of grammar school teachers is already a dead issue among language professionals.

But, language in its social context has normative elements that we can not ignore. It would be better to embrace them and make our prescriptivism rational instead of leaving it to nonsense merchants in the Times.

You can read an academic piece that includes a discussion of the Tenerife accident here, which notes:

The last sentence in the first officer’s read-back, underlined above, has been the subject of a lot of debate since the accident. Some commentators have posited linguistic interference from the first officer’s L1: in Dutch a preposition may be used with the infinitive form of a verb to indicate an action currently being performed (ICAO, 2004, p. 30). Hence, the first officer may have meant the phrase ‘at take off’ to mean ‘in the process of taking off’ (Cushing, 1994, p. 1). His words, though, were ‘hurried and the voice tremulous’, indicating that he was under stress and making transcription of the voice recorder tapes so difficult that the ALPA study suggested that he might actually have said, ‘We are, uh, taking off’ (Roitsch et al., 1978, p. 23). According to the Spanish report, the controller interpreted the first officer’s final sentence as meaning ‘We are now at take-off position’ (CIAIAC, 1978, p. 47). In other words, the controller assumed an elliptical construction and, from the context available to him, inferred the missing element was ‘position’.

There’s also a helpfully annotated PBS transcript.

Random pieces – history and other things

This is just a note of a few more random, fascinating bits of historical trivia I came across.

The atomic priesthood

I can’t remember when I first came across the idea of the atomic priesthood, but it’s fascinating. From The Atlantic:

Radioactive waste could remain dangerous to humans for tens of thousands of years. In the age of the Internet, it’s hard to conceive of the difficulties inherent in trying to communicate over such vast amounts of time. People today tend to live in a sort of temporal bubble, an eternal present, with communication being made intentionally disposable. They don’t draft tweets for next week, much less for generations yet to be born. And that counter-intuitively makes it easy to lose perspective on what the French Annales School of historians termed longue durée, literally the “long term,” the deep and almost imperceptible changes over vast stretches of time. It’s in these broad historical terms that we should consider communicating messages over something like 300 generations.

In this critique, there’s an interesting highlight that some of the original conception involves a relay system between generations.

Finally, there’s a reading list here on the atomic priesthood.

How folk tales evolve

I randomly looked up the evolution of folk tales the other day. It turns out, there has been some research.

There’s a great summary in The Atlantic:

In 2013, Jamie Tehrani from Durham University did this for Little Red Riding Hood, charting the relationships between 58 different versions of the tale. In some, a huntsman rescues the girl; in others, she does it herself. But all these iterations could be traced back to a single origin, 2,000 years ago, somewhere between Europe and the Middle East. And East Asian versions (with several girls, and a tiger or leopard in lieu of wolf) probably derived from these European ancestors.

Similarly, writing in The Guardian:

Indigenous stories of dramatic sea level rises across Australia date back more than 7,000 years in a continuous oral tradition without parallel anywhere in the world, according to new research.

Sunshine Coast University marine geographer Patrick Nunn and University of New England linguist Nicholas Reid believe that 21 Indigenous stories from across the continent faithfully record events between 18,000 and 7000 years ago, when the sea rose 120m.

Reid said a key feature of Indigenous storytelling culture – a distinctive “cross-generational cross-checking” process – might explain the remarkable consistency in accounts passed down by preliterate people which researchers previously believed could not persist for more than 800 years.

The Secrets of Alchemy by Lawrence M. Principe

Lawrence Principe is a fascinating academic. I feel like it’s hard for me to do justice to this historian of science, who’s doing the hard work of genuinely recreating alchemical experiments, to see how alchemists did their work, and what they achieved. There’s a great article (unfortunately paywalled) in the Washington Post that gives a flavour of what he does (‘This chemist is unlocking the secrets of alchemy’, Washington Post, 2018).

So I was excited to read The Secrets of Alchemy. And it mostly lived up to expectations. It’s a very readable history of alchemy, for the layperson. It paints a picture of a group of people who for the most part weren’t too unreasonable; they were operating within the intellectual frameworks they had at the time, trying to control and shape the world around them; and in some instances, actually succeeding? Granted, there is no philosopher’s stone; but they did some quite tricky things with chemicals, apparently; and often encoded it all in strange, striking imagery and metaphors.

Principe shows the linkages between alchemy and chemistry, and groups them under chymstry, an interesting framing of a rich intellectual tradition.

It’s something of a niche topic, but if you’re interested and don’t have much of a background, I found this an excellent intro – well worth a read.

Quotes

By the end of the Middle Ages, alchemy was a mature subject thoroughly established in Europe. The years from 1500 to 1700, known as the Scientific Revolution or the early modern period, witnessed its continuing expansion and development … Aided by the printing press … alchemical texts appeared in greater numbers and guises, many of them intentionally secretive, using allegory, Decknamen, allegorical images, and dispersion to guard their secrets (p. 107).

The woodcut shows the king, his chaste bride, and the wolf (wearing a collar and looking rather more like a whippet) jumping over the fire. Paternal Saturn (identified by his crutch and scythe) stands nearby. What does it all mean? This riddle is relatively easy. The text clearly describes a purification process. In the context of metallic transmutation, the king is likely the “king of the metals”, that is, gold. This gold (the king’s body) is fed to a ravenous wolf who is a child of Saturn. In the standard planetary nomenclature, Saturn is lead; his child would then be something closely related, and useful for purifying gold. The answer is Valentine’s favourite substance, antimony ore or stibnite. Stibnite was widely thought to be related to lead, and was used to purify gold. Calling stibnite a ravenous wolf would make sense to anyone who has seen it react with metals. When melted, stibnite dissolves-“devours”- the metals with breathtaking speed. Corroboration comes from the hint “on account of his name [he] is subjected to bellicose Mars.” In German, the name for the mineral stibnite is Spiessglanz, literally “spear-shine”, in reference to its shiny needlelike crystals. A spear, like all weapons, is subject to Mars, the god of war (p. 146).

… the term donum dei (gift of God) is actually a technical phrase used in medieval and Renaissance theological and legal literature dealing with the status of knowledge. St. Thomas Aquinas (among others) asserts that all knowledge is in fact a donum dei. In doing so, he alludes to an established legal precept that “knowledge is the gift of God, therefore it cannot be sold” (scientia donum dei est, unde vendi non potest). This precept emerged from ethical arguments about whether it is licit for teachers to require payment from their students. (The consensus was no). The underlying idea is that since knowledge is a divine gift, the person who has received it has no right to sell it, in part because he does not in fact own it; and in part because doing so would be simony, that is, the sin of selling spiritual goods for money. (p. 194).

For Kunrath, however, this comparison-or “analogical harmony” (harmonia analogica), as he terms it-between Christ and the Philosopher’s Stone is much more than a metaphor, allegory, or rhetorical conceit. It carries demonstrative, evidentiary, and probatory power. The existence of Christ the Redeemer and His attributes guarantees the existence of a material stone with analogous attributes relative to its own material realm. The connective analogy (Christ-Philosophers’ Stone) functions as a proof, transmitting the sure existence of one to the sure existence of the other. How can this be? … The modern world considers such metaphors and analogies to be creations of the human mind. For Khunrath and many of his contemporaries, they are neither arbitrary nor products of human imagination-they exist independently as real connections in the fabric of the world itself. They lie there hidden, waiting to be uncovered. (p. 201)

This vision of the world rests in part on the doctrine of the Two Books, enunciated most fully by St. Augustine (354-430), and widely accepted in the early modern period by theologians and natural philosophers alike. The doctrine states that God reveals Himself to mankind in two different ways: through words in the Bible, the Book of Scripture, and through things in creation, the Book of Nature. (p. 202)

For them, an analogy was something actually existing in the world-a real connection intentionally built into the fabric of what is. Metaphors and analogies constituted a central facet of their multilayered, multivalent, highly interconnected world. The power of such harmonia analogia flowed from their vision of a world created by a uniform, omnipotent, omniscient God: a world endowed in every corner with meaning, message and purpose; a world where heaven is joined to earth, and God to man (His image) in ways seen and unseen, ways to be discovered and explored by manifold means. Thus, an analogical likeness was not the product of a poetical human mind but a line in the blueprint of creation. (p. 205).

The products alchemists sought to prepare ranged from grand arcana like the Philosophers’ Stone, the alkahest, and potable gold through lesser transmuting agents, spagyric and other pharmaceutical preparations, to greater yields of metals from ores, better alloys, pigments, glass, dyes, cosmetics, and a host of other commercial products. (p. 208).

They [alchemists] cataloged substances and their properties, recording the fullness and diversity of the natural world. In short, they sought to understand the natural world, to uncover, observe, and utilize its processes, to formulate and refine explanations of its functioning, and to seek out its arcane secrets. (p. 209).

Glued to games

Glued to Games: How Video Games Draw Us in and Hold Us Spellbound by Scott Rigby and Richard Ryan is an interesting read. I started reading because I was interested in the question of autonomy – in my psych studies, I couldn’t remember a theory that outlined our human need for autonomy, and how we can conceptualise or measure it. The framework outlined (I don’t think solely developed) by Rigby and Ryan is slightly different, but still very relevant.

The context that they choose to use it in is video games; which, surprisingly enough, makes a lot of sense. Their core argument is that where people’s needs aren’t met, they often end up at risk for video game addition (and presumably for other forms of addiction, I would imagine). The centre of their framework is self-determination theory – the idea that all people have, to some extent, universal needs for autonomy, relatedness, and competence.

The ideas they put forward are spelt out in detail in the quotes below. This is worth it if you’re interested in computer games and psychology, and I actually found it quite a good primer on self-determination theory in general.

Quotes

Front Matter

Location 209

There is something deeply satisfying when we are engaged by a game, and until we understand what that’s about, we’ll never really understand game psychology.

Location 217

Competence refers to our innate desire to grow our abilities and gain mastery of new situations and challenges.

Location 220

Autonomy needs reflect our innate desire to take actions out of personal volition, and not because we are “controlled” by circumstances or by others. Experiencing a sense of choice and opportunity in our lives, and acting in ways that truly reflect our wishes, result in a satisfaction of this intrinsic autonomy need.

Location 221

Relatedness refers to our need to have meaningful connections to others. As with competence and autonomy, we see time and again that people seek out quality relationships simply for the intrinsic reward that comes from having a mutually supportive connection with others.

Location 229

games are remarkably good candidates for need satisfaction, largely because of the immediacy, consistency, and density of intrinsic satisfactions they provide.

Location 230

immediacy, we mean the ready availability of video games to offer highly engaging experiences. My wife once came into my office on a rainy weekend day and glancing at my computer screen said, “Wow … you have such a beautiful ful castle in that other world. How cool that you can go to a place like that so easily.” Video games have that ability to transport us to rich worlds filled with opportunity and challenge almost instantaneously.

Location 236

That immediacy in being able to satisfy motivational needs such as competence/mastery (and others) is a key component of games’ psychological appeal and powerful draw.

Location 237

Consistency refers to the high likelihood that games will deliver on their promise ise of engagement and need satisfaction.

Location 242

video games give us the “just world” in which we instinctively wish to live. They establish very clear links between actions, consequences, and rewards.

Location 246

density refers to games’ ability to deliver competence and other satisfactions tions with a high rate of frequency.

Location 246

Good games are almost always built around a constant stream of mastery feedback, giving players information about their success and rewarding that success meaningfully by increasing their abilities and strength to conquer the even greater challenges ahead.

Location 265

In these virtual worlds, life is fairer, more rule bound, more predictable (despite the built-in surprises), and thus more reliably satisfying.

Location 294

To be truly satisfying, however, our successes often need to occur in the context of a real challenge.

Location 308

We all have stories of the “minigames” that we spontaneously create to satisfy our competence needs, particularly when life throws us something mundane. The energy for all those paper clip and business card sculptures that materialize during the boring moments of our lives must come from somewhere within us; they are just one example of how we are intrinsically motivated to seek out and master challenges and constantly experience a satisfaction of our need for competence.

Location 315

As with sports, gamers will often push through the pain of a tired hand or a full bladder to reach their goals for no other reward than the feelings of mastery and achievement. In many cases, they need no other incentive to play.

Location 336

several things are necessary. First, we need to have clarity about the goal at hand

Location 339

we also have to feel that the challenge itself is not overwhelming.

Location 340

In other words, when tasks seem overwhelming, there is little motivation to pursue them.’

Location 341

there needs to be clear feedback on our actions that makes us feel we have learned something useful each time we engage in a challenge.

Location 345

Essentially then, competence satisfactions are most often achieved by (1) pursuing challenges that stretch our abilities but that we believe we can overcome (optimal challenges) and (2) receiving meaningful informational feedback on our actions (i.e., information that is useful and nonjudgmental) that allows us to learn and improve, whether or not we succeed the first time out.

Location 351

Certainly there are deep and rich competence satisfactions available to us in many areas of life, but it is often a challenge to find them (or feel like we have the time to pursue them). In other words, getting satisfaction of competence needs is often an uncertain and drawn-out process. Not so with video games.

Location 365

Clear goals, useful performance feedback, and optimal challenges that stimulate late but do not overwhelm us-this probably describes what we’d wish not just from a game, but from our jobs and most activities in life as well, right? This demonstrates the fundamental nature of our need for growth through experiences riences of competence. Arcade games came along and offered this to us for 25 cents.

Location 388

Deeper analyses also showed that this reduction in stress was directly a function of the feelings of efficacy and competence they had experienced in the game.

Location 420

We call these kinds of competence feedback mechanisms granular competence feedback because they have a one-to-one relationship to each of the player’s individual actions.

Location 423

Various score multipliers, visual cues, and the roars from the crowd powerfully communicate to the player that they are “in the zone.” We call this sustained competence feedback.

Location 430

cumulative competence feedback-recognizing the more permanent growth in the player’s abilities in ways that don’t disappear when you press the “off’ switch.

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in video games, the heroic narrative does something else for players: From the very beginning, it supports in their minds the idea that they are a hero. The game believes in them and their ability (i.e., competence).

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We wanted to empirically test whether competence satisfaction was important globally, irrespective of personal preference for content. And in fact, this is what we found-competence satisfaction tion was a consistent predictor of game preferences and desire for future play

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We consistently find that when people experience autonomy, they are happier, healthier, and more motivated. And as with mastery experiences, people are naturally motivated to seek out and stay engaged with those activities that instill a sense of personal autonomy.

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Many people with loads of freedom lurch this direction and then that, but can’t seem to make “freedom” work for them. What’s missing for many is the perception that there are interesting or personally sonally valued opportunities to pursue and ready avenues and tools to go after them. Freedom itself isn’t enough you have to see real opportunities for yourself within your environment.

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We only truly feel a sense of choice when we perceive the situation as providing intriguing or valued alternatives or options, ones that we can actually explore and realize rather than just imagine.

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is often when an individual has a sense of mission and purpose that they feel most autonomous, even though they may not perceive a lot of options or specific choices.

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In our model, autonomy needs can certainly be enhanced when we have meaningful choices, but one can also feel autonomy when the only option open to you is one that makes sense to pursue, whether or not options are present.

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We often think about relationships as being all about warmth and connectedness. ness. But an ever-increasing body of research shows that the most satisfying relationships are those in which we feel autonomous and competent as well.’ That is, we feel most intimate, most secure, and most happy around those people who do not try to control us, but instead support our sense of autonomy and choice.

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Gone are the days when B. F. Skinner’s “beyond freedom and dignity” reigned-today we recognize that a sense of freedom or autonomy, and the dignity it affords, are a major factor in facilitating motivation.

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choice is not the only path to satisfaction. Remember that feeling autonomous means that we are pursuing things that interest us and that we want to pursue.

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a well-designed video game never drags or prods the player along in these ways. Instead, they use well-crafted stories and compelling rationales to awaken in the player an internal desire to walk the path ahead. We call this experience in games volitional engagement and it is strongly related to autonomy satisfaction even in games that are linear and do not technically cally provide a lot of choice or freedom.

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autonomy needs are most strongly satisfied when we experience rience both meaningful choices (in such areas as “who we are” and “what we do” in the game) and volitional engagement (i.e., do we endorse the actions we are taking, whether or not choice is present).

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Our data indicate that one of the biggest contributors to the desire to reengage gage with a game over the long term is the experience of autonomy satisfactions.

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From this perspective then, games are a virtual vehicle for the satisfaction of real needs, which has interesting implications for how we understand and relate to them. Whether these powerful satisfactions, readily supplied, are actual nourishment ishment or just mental fast food is a question we will debate further.

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brief, when we look at the aspects of our relationships and interactions with others that support our relatedness need, we find three elements that are of particular importance in deepening satisfaction:

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Acknowledgment-The first step to any feeling of relatedness is being acknowledged by another person.

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Support-Beyond acknowledgement, there is a desire to be supported.

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Impact-In addition to support, we matter to others when we see our impact on them.

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They always involved (1) teaming up with others, (2) working together to overcome a significant challenge, and (3) feeling camaraderie and connection as we pursued the goal.

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competence, autonomy, and relatedness are each unique, games that satisfy more of these needs have incremental appeal, with each component building upon the value of the other.

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immersion or presence: The experience of being “drawn in”-even transported to-a fictional world through storytelling.

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Technically, stories are always told to us through some third party (e.g., our TVs or books or video games), and so are inherently mediated. But when they are good, they evoke in us an “illusion of non-mediation.”2 They draw us in to an enveloping emotional embrace where thinking about them as mere fiction feels inadequate.

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it doesn’t even matter that the stories we create for ourselves are real or even plausible. When we are immersed, our emotions trump the boring world of “facts.” We check all the closets after seeing a horror movie not because we believe brain-eating zombies exist, but because our emotions don’t distinguish the real from the imagined, even if our rational (and, we fear, tasty) brain does.

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There is much literary and film theory as to what makes for good storytelling, and exploring this would be a lengthy journey for which we are hardly qualified.

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Feeling that any particular situation is authentic is largely dependent on our past personal experiences. We naturally organize what we learn about the world into various frameworks-sometimes called schema6-which we subsequently apply to new situations that seem similar.

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Even in fictional worlds, authenticity is dependent on things being consistent with our experience and understanding.

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the experience of autonomy, competence, and relatedness satisfactions were among the strongest predictors of a player feeling physically immersed in the game world, even when compared to things like the quality of graphics and sound.

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No matter what genre we look at (e.g., RPG, strategy, or FPS), graphic fidelity and quality were less related to “feelings” of immersion (as well as value and enjoyment) when compared to need satisfaction.

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If the feelings a player has while playing a video game are on par with parallel reactions to events in the molecular world, the player is experiencing emotional presence in the game-a state of genuine feelings in response to fictional events.

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Narrative presence is the extent to which players feel they are an integral part of the story-that that their actions influence the path and the outcome of the game’s narrative.

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a deeper sense of presence ence of all types (physical, emotional, and narrative) is related to not only how authentic the appearance and physics of a game world are, but even more so by how well a game satisfies those core needs.

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Immersion and the experience of “presence” ence” we’ve discussed happen when players find opportunities to act within the game world in ways that reflect their basic needs in the real world-actions that satisfy the need to grow and feel masterful in what we undertake, to feel autonomous in what we pursue, and to have a meaningful and relevant connection to others.

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By understanding games through their ability to strongly satisfy needs for competence, autonomy, and relatedness, we not only have a means of understanding standing what makes them so enjoyable, but what makes them ideal candidates for excessive play.

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In chapter 1, we touched upon three qualities of games that greatly add to a player’s enthusiasm: their ability to deliver need satisfaction with immediacy, consistency, and density. Few activities available to us have the capacity to provide need satisfaction with high degrees of any of these three-let alone all of them-the way that video games do.

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organizing enjoyable activities in the molecular world takes significantly cantly more time and effort when compared to the virtual world of video games.

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Adding to the immediacy of game satisfaction is the consistency in how they satisfy us. Games operate on the basis of reliable, predictable rules that once learned will deliver satisfactions of our competence, autonomy, and even relatedness ness right on schedule. Finishing a quest in a role-playing game will always give you the reward you have worked for, and the game won’t pass you over for promotion. Your virtual baseball game is never cancelled on account of rain. Put differently, you can rely on the need satisfactions offered by virtual worlds much more so than the less predictable molecular world of ambiguity, tough luck, politics, the store being out of your favorite brand of cookies, and the countless other mundane disappointments we face each day.

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We have similarly evolved deep psychological needs for autonomy, competence, and relatedness, acquired through the process of selective advantage. Those who could self-organize and effectively act and connect with others were simply better able to thrive. But today creative people are finding new ways to facilitate these experiences virtually. This opens up a whole new universe for rich enjoyment, ment, but at the same time has the potential to become a less nourishing form of satisfaction for the over-involved who forgo pursuing these same satisfactions from actual living.

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Video games, that is, may provide meaningful and enjoyable satisfactions when in balance with life, but become the oversized candy bar of the psychological diet for those who have difficulty in regulating behavior.

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Understanding activity in terms of its ability to satisfy intrinsic needs such as competence, autonomy, and relatedness is far more useful in understanding why activities such as video games become addictive, while other activities such as grocery shopping or lawn mowing usually do not.

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Put a bit differently, any behavior can become the focus of an addiction, but those that are most engaging and pleasurable are more common magnets.

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In the chapter on autonomy (chapter 3), we mentioned that when we have players keep diaries on all their daily activities, both in and out of games, it is autonomy satisfaction that most strongly energizes gizes thinking about games when not playing.

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Any pleasurable experience releases “positive” neurotransmitters such as dopamine. But just as cocaine directly and immediately gives addicts that rush, so too the immediacy and density of intrinsic need satisfaction in MMOs-richly provided for all of the needs in the PENS model-leads some to overindulge and show signs of addiction.

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One is that the Zeigarnik effect reveals a tendency to experience tension and even intrusive thoughts about goals that one has engaged in that are left incomplete.’

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MMOs are designed so that your list of tasks is never done.

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So when we think about the structure of MMOs, we can think about their addictive properties in two ways. On a fundamental level, these games keep you returning because they satisfy multiple psychological needs, and they are especially cially attractive because of that potential. But on a moment-to-moment level, they also keep you in a state of incompleteness, pulling on you to play longer than you might otherwise have planned. Finally, as you engage in more and more complex tasks that require group participation and cooperation, social pressure to play for extended periods of time also enters into the mix.

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Our work in applying self-determination theory to general well-being has shown that persons whose basic psychological needs are met in their daily lives-through through avenues of work, relationships, and leisure activities-are better able to autonomously regulate those activities. In other words, these folks exert control over themselves that is integrated into who they are and what they personally find important.

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In fact, a large body of research suggests that the more you are provided with supports for autonomy, competence, and relatedness within your development-from from your caregivers, teachers, and important others-the stronger your capacity to self-regulate in a healthy way.’

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In other words, one marker of vulnerability for overuse of video games is the degree to which we feel our intrinsic needs are supported in other areas of life.

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But our analyses did show that the direct negative effects of gameplay are small once you take into account the general levels of need satisfaction in these gamers’ lives.

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Many people have become over-involved in games in no small part because games are engaging and satisfying. But it is also true that overuse occurs not just because games are engaging, but because people of all ages become vulnerable to seeking game satisfactions too often when they have unsatisfying lives at home, in school, or at work. It is for those who have a strong contrast between an unsatisfying life and a highly satisfying virtual world where we believe a strong risk for overuse is most present.

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They fall in love with what the real world doesn’t offer-a high density of psychological need satisfactions that come from being a hero, accomplishing goals, and teaming up with friends to accomplish epic feats.

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It’s our contention that there’s a lot of need satisfaction woven into many violent game scenarios-notably strong satisfaction of both competence and autonomy needs-that carries the real value of violent play.

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The bigger and more varied your options and weapon arsenal, the more such choices and the sense of freedom that goes with them are enabled.

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We were able to show with these surveys (involving approximately 2,500 gamers) that enjoyment and interest est in playing or purchasing these games was strongly related to autonomy and competence experiences, whereas the level of violence was not at all predictive of these outcomes.

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Trait aggressiveness is a variable that captures a person’s general tendency to be argumentative, to respond to provocation with hostility, and to be easy to anger.’6

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Sales records show that when it comes to games of combat, war, and fighting (e.g., Mortal Combat, F.E.A.R.), males are the primary consumers. When we move to RPG and MMO games that are less combat oriented and less graphic in their violence, males still predominate, but more females are in the mix. When we move to games like the The Sims, however-a game focused on less violent, and even nurturing themes-females are the main consumers.

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Consistent with Bandura’s early experiments, findings from these studies suggest that short-term exposure to video game violence is significantly associated with increases in aggression.21 Others have additionally reported that exposure to media violence may foster desensitization to violence29 and decreased pro-social behaviors in social interactions.3o

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The results from Ferguson’s group suggested that trait aggression, family violence, and even simply being male were predictive of violent crime, but when these variables were accounted for, exposure to violent games did not add any predictive value on its own.33

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We do believe it is important to consider the possibility, backed by growing evidence, that there are certain people who are at greater risk for violent video games amplifying or catalyzing their violent behavior.

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Although most people have a relatively intact capacity for self-regulation and controlling impulses, not all do.37

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Using what is called the “five-factor model” of basic personality traits, they found that individuals uals who were highly neurotic and low in both agreeableness and conscientiousness ness were those most impacted by violent content.

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the data generally support the conclusion that exposure to violent video games can increase aggressive thinking, emotions, and behavior immediately after play.

The Unfinished Game

There’s been a lot of discussion recently about the Beatles documentary Get Back, and in particular the moment when the hit Get back was born. In a sense, The Unfinished Game: Pascal, Fermat, and the Seventeenth-Century Letter that Made the World Modern by Keith Devlin is seeking to tell a similar story. It tells the story of an exchange of letters between two mathematicians which was crucial in germinating the ideas and information that, apparently, would lead to modern probability theory, and in turn so much of the modern world.

Devlin does two things well. One is setting the context – the way in which people’s very understanding of the world was different then, and how new and exciting the ideas were. The second is working through the exact flow of ideas and letters between the two mathematicians.

It’s a niche point in history, but still an interesting one, and worth a read if you’re into the history of mathematics.

Quotes

CHAPTER 3 – On the Shoulders of a Giant

NUMBER WAS THE KEY > Page 33

The new number system made it possible for anyone to master and use basic arithmetic. The first group to take advantage of this powerful new tool was the Italian merchants, for whom Leonardo primarily wrote his book.

THE REMARKABLE MAN FROM MILAN > Page 45

Cardano defined, for the first time, what we now call the probability of an event as a fraction: the number of ways the event can occur divided by the total number of possible outcomes.

THE REMARKABLE MAN FROM MILAN > Page 46

The more general version of this is that if an action occurs twice, and if the probability of an event or outcome E occurring the first time is pE and the probability of an event or outcome F occurring the second time is pF, then the probability that both will occur (in that order) is pE x

CHAPTER 4 – A Man of Slight Build

THE REMARKABLE MAN FROM MILAN > Page 50

From the time of the ancient Greeks, it was believed that the future was in the hands of the gods— a matter of pure fate. Quantifying the way a pair of dice may fall, as Cardano had done, was one thing; predicting what future throws of the dice might bring (as in the unfinished game) was quite another.

THE REMARKABLE MAN FROM MILAN > Page 50

As recently as 1756, over a hundred years after Pascal and Fermat had their famous exchange, the great French mathematician Abraham de Moivre (whom we shall meet later), the man who discovered the normal distribution that forms the basis of contemporary predictive statistics, firmly believed the future was determined by God. 

THE REMARKABLE MAN FROM MILAN > Page 51

Pascal and Fermat not only had to figure out how to perform the calculation that resolves the problem of the unfinished game, but also had to do so within a worldview that considered what they were doing impossible. Prior to 1654, tomorrow was viewed as a matter of Fate, something over which a person had no control. In solving the problem, they were instrumental in changing that view, though as the passage from de Moivre indicates, it took a long time for the true import of their work to break through.

CHAPTER 8 – Into the Everyday World

THE AMAZING BERNOULLIS > Page 107

The law of large numbers gives the precise mathematical result that corresponds to the well- known fact that the relative frequency of an event will more accurately predict the likelihood of its occurrence the more trials you observe.

CHAPTER 9 – The Chance of Your Life

THE PRICE ON YOUR HEAD > Page 132

A detailed study of annuities was made by a remarkable Dutchman by the name of Jan de Witt (1625- 1672), who, after a brilliant early career as a mathematician, went into politics and became, at age twenty- eight, the prime minister of Holland. In need of funds to fight the English and French, he proposed the sale of annuities and wrote a paper that described how to price and structure them, based on an original and sophisticated mathematical analysis. The paper was published in 1671, one year before France’s invasion of Holland, an event that led to his resignation from office and subsequent murder by a mob.

CHAPTER 10 – The Measure of Our Ignorance

WHAT EXACTLY IS PROBABILITY? > Page 162

The idea is to play what is today called a de Finetti game.

WHAT EXACTLY IS PROBABILITY? > Page 163

The de Finetti procedure has established an exact correspondence between your subjective probability and a frequentist probability (namely, picking balls from a jar where you know the proportions of the colors of the balls).

Superintelligence by Nick Bostrom

Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies by Nick Bostrom covers a fascinating topic. It’s about the emergency of artificial intelligence (AI), and the things we should think about at a societal level, particularly in terms of risk management.

For the most part, sadly, I found Bostrom’s writing quite dry, and unengaging. The ideas he’s covering are important ones, and the questions he’s asking are crucial. It’s just that once he gets into second and third order speculation about how and when an AI may emerge, and what that will involve, it can feel very much like a ‘just-so’ story, or a Victorian writer speculating about the technologies that will follow the telegram. The questions are right, it just feels like the answers based on speculation are at best vague and irrelevant, at worst wildly wrong.

I wouldn’t generally recommend this one; but obviously Bostrom is the person to read in this field.

Quotes

Page 16

Bayesian spam filters have largely managed to hold the spam tide at bay.

Page 16

McCarthy’s dictum that when something works it is no longer called AI.

Artificial intelligence

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We can, however, discern some general features of the kind of system that would be required. It now seems clear that a capacity to

Page 23

learn

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ability to deal effectively with uncertainty and probabilistic information. Some faculty for extracting useful concepts from sensory data and internal states,

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leveraging acquired concepts into flexible combinatorial representations for use in logical and intuitive reasoning,

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“recursive self- improvement.”

Whole brain emulation

Page 35

Because the gaps between these rungs— at least after the first step— are mostly quantitative in nature and due mainly (though not entirely) to the differences in size of the brains to be emulated, they should be tractable through a relatively straightforward scale- up of scanning and simulation

Biological cognition

Page 44

at least weak forms of … 

Page 44

… superintelligence are achievable by means of biotechnological enhancements; (2) the feasibility of cognitively enhanced humans adds to the plausibility that advanced forms of machine intelligence are feasible— because even if we were fundamentally unable to create machine intelligence (which there is no reason to suppose), machine intelligence might still be within reach of cognitively enhanced humans; and (3) when we consider scenarios

Page 44

… stretching significantly into the second half of this century and beyond, we must take into account the probable emergence of a generation of genetically enhanced populations— voters, inventors, scientists— with the magnitude of enhancement escalating rapidly over subsequent decades.

Mind crime

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Normally, we do not regard what is going on inside a computer as having any moral significance except insofar as it affects things outside. But a machine superintelligence could create internal processes that have moral status.

Incentive methods

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Consider a billionaire who uses her fortune to set up a large charitable foundation. Once created, the foundation may be powerful— more powerful than most individuals, including its founder, who might have donated most of her wealth. To control the foundation, the founder lays down its purpose in articles of incorporation and bylaws, and appoints a board of directors sympathetic to her cause. These measures constitute a form of motivation selection, since they aim to shape foundation’s preferences. But even if such attempts to customize the organizational internals fail, the foundation’s behavior would remain circumscribed by its social and legal milieu. The foundation would have an incentive to obey the law, for example, lest it be shut down or fined. It would have an incentive to offer its employees acceptable pay and working conditions, and to satisfy external stakeholders. Whatever its final goals, the foundation thus has instrumental reasons to conform its behavior to various social norms.

Capital and welfare

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Newly minted trillionaires or quadrillionaires could afford to pay a hefty premium for having some of their goods and services supplied by an organic “fair- trade” labor force.

The Malthusian principle in a historical perspective

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A sad and dissonant thought: that in this Malthusian condition, the normal state of affairs during most of our tenure on this planet, it was droughts, pestilence, massacres, and inequality— in common estimation the worst foes of human welfare— that may have been the greatest humanitarians: they alone enabling the average level of well- being to occasionally bop up slightly above that of life at the very margin of subsistence.

Population growth and investment

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A scenario in which the fraction of the economy that is owned by machines asymptotically approaches one hundred percent is not necessarily one in which the size of the human slice declines.

Voluntary slavery, casual death

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A salient initial question is whether these working machine minds are owned as capital (slaves) or are hired as free wage laborers. On closer inspection however, it becomes doubtful that anything really hinges on the issue. There are two reasons for this. First, if a free worker in a Malthusian state gets paid a subsistence- level wage, he will have no disposable income left after he has paid for food and other necessities. If the worker is instead a slave, his owner will pay for his maintenance and again he will have no disposable income. In either case, the worker gets the necessities and nothing more.

Superorganisms and scale economies

Page 179

… certain types of advances in motivation selection techniques, which may become feasible when the actors are digital, may help overcome some of the inefficiencies that currently hamper large human organizations and that counterbalance economies of scale.

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With these limits lifted, organizations— be they firms, nations, or other economic or political entities— could increase in size. This is one factor that could facilitate the emergence of a post- transition singleton.

Unification by treaty

Page 184

… multipolarity, even if it could be achieved in a stable form, would not guarantee an attractive outcome. The original principal– agent problem remains unsolved, and burying it under a new set of problems related to post- transition global coordination failures may only make the situation worse.

The value-loading problem

Page 186

This intuitive understanding of vision is like a duke’s understanding of his patriarchal household: as far as he is concerned, things simply appear at their appropriate times and places, while the mechanism that produces those manifestations are hidden from view.

Motivational scaffolding

Page 191

One could also try to use motivation selection methods to induce a more collaborative relationship between the seed AI and the programmer team. For example, one might include in the scaffold motivation system the goal of welcoming online guidance from the programmers, including allowing them to replace any of the AI’s current goals.

Second-guessing

Page 239

How could anybody predict the final course of a message after it has been jolted hither and thither in the pinball machine of public discourse? Doing so would seem to require predicting the rhetorical effects on myriad constituents with varied idiosyncrasies and fluctuating levels of influence over long periods of time during which the system may be perturbed by unanticipated events from the outside while its topology is also undergoing a continuous endogenous reorganization: surely an impossible task!

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There may, however, be a moral case for de- emphasizing or refraining from second- guessing moves. Trying to outwit one another looks like a zero- sum game— or negative- sum, when one considers the time and energy that would be dissipated by the practice as well as the likelihood that it would make it generally harder for anybody to discover what others truly think and to be trusted when expressing their own opinions. A full- throttled deployment of the practices of strategic communication would kill candor and leave truth bereft to fend for herself in the backstabbing night of political bogeys.

Will the best in human nature please stand up

Page 259

Before the prospect of an intelligence explosion, we humans are like small children playing with a bomb. Such is the mismatch between the power of our plaything and the immaturity of our conduct.

Afterword

Page 260

… to take seriously the view that a machine intelligence transition might occur in this century, that such a transition might be among the most important events in human history, that it might be accompanied by some amount of existential risk as well as tremendous upside, and that it would be prudent to put in a bit of work in advance to see if there is something we should be doing to shorten the odds of a favorable outcome.