How people make decisions

I was reading a 538 article and came across this sentence:

Rubio, who many believe wants to run for president again, judged the terrain and apparently decided the best way to compete in a future presidential primary was to remain a member of the Senate.

There’s nothing in the article to indicate that the author has inside knowledge from Rubio. Which suggests it’s speculation.

In turn, I would argue, it’s unwise speculation. Simply because humans are inevitably messy. I have no idea about Rubio’s decision making process, but I would guess that it is messy, involves his own feelings on particular issues and talking with people close to him. And a whole lot of other random factors that are hard to pin down.

Sure, the article sets out logical reasoning why he may have made his decision. But it doesn’t point to any new information; all of the factors are ones that Rubio would have logically known when he realised he wasn’t going to get the nomination. So, presumably something else had to have changed?


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